As we head into full blown spring, it’s time to talk about the forecast ahead and what that can mean for your health.
The first step is to know the difference between a watch and a warning, a difference that has been hard for some people to grasp.
A watch comes first and means all the conditions are there for severe weather, and there’s a high likelihood of an event forming.
A warning is employed when the event in question has either formed (like a hurricane or a tornado) or has the correct conditions to form within the next 24 hours (like a wildfire’s “red flag warning”).
So, will our summer be full of watches or warnings?
If you're a loyal follower of the show, you may recall from one of our first episodes over last summer that scientists were predicting a La Niña weather pattern to emerge this past fall or winter.
Whereas El Niño weather patterns are known for higher temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, which create warmer weather and increased rainfall in the South, La Niña patterns are marked by colder temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, resulting in drier weather in the South and wetter weather in the North.
There was a lot of interest in moving from an El Niño system to a La Niña in the fall or winter, because if our hotter-than-average temperatures persisted even with a weather system that’s known to be cooler on average, that would be a bad sign for climate change.
Having a La Niña period, which typically lasts for between nine months and two years, could not only mean lower temperatures than our record-setting 2024, but also more predictability for the kind of weather we’d have over the next months to years.
Well, three months after the announcement that we entered La Niña, scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmoshperic Administration have announced that it is done.
In the absence of a known weather pattern, predicting what’s to come over the next few months will be more difficult.
Forecasters will have to rely on reading patterns that are only a few months or weeks out, impacting their ability to give advanced warning of potentially dangerous conditions.
But La Niña left us one parting gift: a higher likelihood of serious wildfire seasons in California.
The dry conditions promoted by a La Niña can play into the start of wildfire season, typically beginning in May..
Those were fueled, in part, by two rainy winters, which facilitated enormous amounts of vegetation growth that became fuel after drying out over the summer and fall.
Combine that with the legendary Santa Ana winds that move down from the San Gabriel Mountains and tear through the canyons, and you have perfect wildfire conditions.
Those fires burned for 24 days, engulfing an area twice the size of Manhattan and destroying 16,000 structures.
While the rains in March brought some much-needed emotional relief from the threat of reignition, they also grew knee high grasses that could dry out during this spring’s predicted early heat waves, putting areas at risk all over again.
It’s possible there could be another round of storms which would impact the area’s ability to catch fire, but without a known El Niño season, it’s harder to predict.
Before wildfire season begins, it’s important to be prepared.
Have a stock of N95 respirator masks, the kind with the vents on them. They aren’t great for protecting others from respiratory pathogens you might have, but they are appropriate for keeping you safe from smoke, much more so than bandanas, and they are a little easier to breathe in than the kind without respirators.
Make sure you have a supply of non-perishable food, water, and medications, if possible, to avoid having to go outside during the smokiest days.
Learn how to close your air conditioner’s fresh air intake so that you aren’t bringing in air from the outside if you need the AC and limit the creation of indoor air pollutants by not burning candles or using gas or propane stoves, or even vacuuming.
Create a clean air room—one that has the fewest windows and can be kept cool—and put a portable air cleaner there. Use it as a place to stay on particularly bad air days.
When it comes to figuring out what a bad air day is, that’s a little trickier.
Obviously, when it’s particularly smokey outdoors, it’s easy to tell that it’s a bad day.
But clear skies might be deceiving. The air quality index you might have on your phone isn’t designed to capture all the pollutants that could result from burning buildings. So, it might say air quality is good when it’s not.
For example, studies after the LA wildfires found increased amounts of lead particles in the air as a result of older buildings with lead paint burning.
If wildfires are still burning, AQI alone isn’t enough to gauge quality. Instead, use fire and smoke maps and wind direction to see if smoke is being pushed toward your location or away from it.
Speaking of moving away from wildfires: hurricanes!
Colorado State University just released their first round of hurricane predictions for the 2025 season.
They’re predicting 17 named storms, nine hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.
Last year was a rough one for hurricanes. Hurricane Beryl was the earliest category 5 hurricane ever recorded, happening on July 1, 2024.
Typically, we don’t see the most powerful storms until the fall, after the Atlantic has had time to soak up all that summer sun and get warm enough to create storm systems.
Last year’s El Niño gave the ocean temps a head start, and as we come out of a weaker La Niña, predicting what this season will look like is hard this far out. The forecast that is set to come at the end of May should be a bit stronger.
Hurricane season starts June 1 in the Atlantic and lasts through November 30, but the season opener is really whenever the first one makes landfall, so be prepared.
In addition to the normal tips like having a supply of food, water and an emergency kit for if you get stuck at home, another helpful activity before a storm is to clear your yard of items or debris that could turn into projectiles during high wind.
Know where the nearest shelter location is if you need to evacuate and plan multiple routes to get there.
Know how to turn off your power if there are downed lines or flooding.
Have a carbon monoxide detector and check its batteries.
Post-hurricane flood waters bring a new set of health challenges—cases of the flesh eating bacteria vibrio vulnificus increased after Florida hurricanes last fall as the storm surges brought the bacteria into flood water, where people could be exposed when open wounds came into contact with contaminated water.
With the strength of these storms increasing, the fallout is spreading.
In September 2024, Hurricane Helene, which was itself a category 4, maintained enough force as a tropical storm to devastate areas of western North Carolina that were more than 500 miles inland.
The same warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico that fuel hurricanes are also fueling increased and wetter storms across the southern U.S., resulting in “generational flooding” that’s so frequent I wonder if the generations they’re referring to are that of fruit flies.
It’s causing people to take some extreme measures, like one Kentucky bar owner who proactively filled his own restaurant with clean water to prevent dirty flood water from getting in and contaminating his walls and floor.
If you are experiencing flooding due to hurricanes, rain or river overflow, the rules are always the same: do not drive through flooded areas.
Oftentimes there are hazards you can’t see under the surface, and it can be a lot deeper than you realize. You don’t want to get stranded in the middle of fast-moving water.
It’s also important to avoid contact with flood waters as much as possible. They can contain things like waste run off and harmful chemicals.
Access to clean water can be particularly difficult during and after flooding events.
If you're not able to fill containers with water before flooding and don't have access to bottled water, you can filter cloudy water through a paper towel or coffee filter and then boil it.
But it’s important to remember boiling will not make water that is contaminated with fuel, toxic chemicals, or radioactive material safe.
If you suspect your water contains these things you need a different source.
In a pinch, bleach can be used to disinfect water. It’s less effective than boiling but better than drinking untreated water.
Most household bleaches contain around 5-9% sodium hypochlorite. Mix one-third of a teaspoon (which is about eight drops) of bleach per gallon of water and let sit for at least 30 minutes.
For hand hygiene, it’s always preferable to use soap rather than hand sanitizer.
If you’re returning home after a long evacuation, be careful of any food in the refrigerator that might need to be thrown out.
One suggestion is to put a cup of water in the freezer and place a coin on top once it’s frozen. If the coin has sunk into the cup and then froze over again, that indicates your power was out for long enough for the temperature to rise, and your food needs to be thrown out.
While all these climate disasters are, as individual events, terrifying, the greatest collective risk we are facing is still being the frog in the boiling pot of water.
The constantly increasing global temperature will have an impact on health around the world for generations and contributes to these increasingly severe storms.
